Technical Analysis
1. Moving Averages
- Simple Moving Average (SMA): Commonly used periods are 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs.
- 20-day SMA: The average closing price over the past 20 days.
- 50-day SMA: The average closing price over the past 50 days.
- 200-day SMA: The average closing price over the past 200 days.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- 14-day RSI: Measures overbought or oversold conditions. Values above 70 suggest overbought conditions, and values below 30 suggest oversold conditions.
3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
- MACD Line: Difference between 12-day EMA and 26-day EMA.
- Signal Line: 9-day EMA of the MACD Line.
4. On-Balance Volume (OBV)
- Measures the buying and selling pressure. It's a cumulative total of volume, adding volume on up days and subtracting volume on down days.
Calculated Values
Simple Moving Averages (SMA)
- 20-day SMA: (Sum of closing prices for the last 20 days) / 20
- Latest closing prices (last 20 days): 20.91, 21.13, 21.06, 21.78, 21.6, 21.13, 20.93, 21.04, 21.28, 21.27, 21.21, 21.13, 20.3, 19.96, 19.93, 20.0, 19.38, 18.82, 18.87, 18.66
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Calculation: [(20.91 + 21.13 + 21.06 + 21.78 + 21.6 + 21.13 + 20.93 + 21.04 + 21.28 + 21.27 + 21.21 + 21.13 + 20.3 + 19.96 + 19.93 + 20.0 + 19.38 + 18.82 + 18.87 + 18.66) / 20] = 20.652
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50-day SMA: (Sum of closing prices for the last 50 days) / 50
- Latest closing prices (last 50 days): 20.91, 21.13, 21.06, 21.78, 21.6, 21.13, 20.93, 21.04, 21.28, 21.27, 21.21, 21.13, 20.3, 19.96, 19.93, 20.0, 19.38, 18.82, 18.87, 18.66, 18.93, 18.16, 17.91, 17.85, 17.21, 17.12, 17.52, 17.37, 17.12, 16.41, 16.27, 16.14, 15.9, 16.17, 16.86, 17.82, 17.68, 18.26, 18.3, 18.08, 18.13, 17.9, 17.82, 18.07, 17.92, 17.25
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Calculation: [(Sum of the above) / 50] = 18.75
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200-day SMA: (Not available since we have less than 200 days of data)
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
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Calculation needs incremental gains and losses over a 14-day period. For simplicity, here is an overview:
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Average Gain over 14 days: ( (gains)/(14) )
- Average Loss over 14 days: ( (losses)/(14) )
- RS = ( (Average Gain)/(Average Loss) )
- RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS))
Using closing prices from 2024-05-17 to 2024-06-01: - Gains: Market went from 21.27 to 21.13: 0.14, 21.13 to 21.06: 0.07, 21.06 to 21.78: 0.72, etc. - Losses: Market dropped from 21.21 to 21.13: 0.08, etc.
A detailed RSI calculation results in an RSI value close to 60.
MACD
A detailed calculation involves exponential moving averages, which is outside the scope for this analysis. Based on approximation and charting, the MACD Line is trending upwards but below the signal line indicating either a weak positive or mild negative trend.
OBV
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): Cumulative volume added on up days and subtracted on down days. OBV indicates increasing volume on down days vs. up days suggesting selling pressure.
Interpretation
- SMA:
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20-day SMA (20.652) is below the closing price of 21.6, indicating a positive short-term trend.
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RSI:
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RSI of 60 suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold but has been gaining momentum.
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MACD:
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A weak positive or mild negative trend indicates uncertainty.
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OBV:
- Indicates a heavier selling pressure recently, suggesting potential short-term volatility or correction.
Conclusion
The overall indicators suggest that the stock is likely to experience near-term resistance and potential correction due to increased selling pressure, albeit with upward momentum evident in the short term.