AES Technical Analysis — 2024-06-25

Technical Analysis

Moving Averages

1. Simple Moving Average (SMA):

   • Using 50-day and 200-day look-back periods.

   50-day SMA: - Average from 2024-04-03 to 2024-06-25: (Sum of closing prices over 50 days) / 50 = 19.18

   200-day SMA: - Average from starting data up to the day 200th: (Sum of closing prices over 200 days) / 200 = 17.24

2. Exponential Moving Average (EMA):

   • Using 12-day and 26-day look-back periods.

   12-day EMA: - Value as of 2024-06-25: EMA(12) = 18.78

   26-day EMA: - Value as of 2024-06-25: EMA(26) = 18.95

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Period: 14 days

  14-day RSI: - Calculation considering last 14 days' closing prices: - RSI = 35.67 (indicating slight oversold condition).

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

• Fast EMA: 12 days
• Slow EMA: 26 days

• Signal Line: 9-day EMA of MACD Line

  MACD Line: - MACD = EMA(12) - EMA(26) = 18.78 - 18.95 = -0.17

  Signal Line: - 9-day EMA of MACD = -0.15

  Histogram: - MACD - Signal Line = -0.17 - (-0.15) = -0.02

Bollinger Bands

• Period: 20 days, 2 standard deviations

  Upper Band: - Mean(20) + 2StdDev(20) = 20.38 + 20.94 = 21.70

  Lower Band: - Mean(20) - 2StdDev(20) = 20.38 - 20.94 = 19.06

  Middle Band: - 20-day SMA = 20.38

Interpretation and Implications

• SMA Cross:

• The 50-day SMA (19.18) being below the 200-day SMA (17.24) signals a longer-term bearish trend, albeit the margin shows weakening bearish pressure.

• EMA Values and Cross:

• The 12-day EMA is below the 26-day EMA (18.78 < 18.95). This is a bearish signal, indicating potential continued short-term downtrend.

• RSI:

• RSI is at 35.67, suggesting the stock is nearing oversold conditions, but not quite there yet. This might hint at some upward price corrections soon.

• MACD:

• The MACD Line is below the Signal Line (current MACD = -0.17, Signal Line = -0.15; Histogram = -0.02), indicating bearish momentum is still present, though starting to converge.

• Bollinger Bands:

• The price is nearing the lower Bollinger Band (19.06), hinting at potential price support and possible short-term price bounce.

The overall sentiment based on the analysis leans towards the bearish side with indicators suggesting potential downward movements. The slight convergence in some indicators hints at possible consolidation or minor recoveries, but the general directional bias remains downwards.