ORCL Technical Analysis — 2024-07-22

Let's analyze the provided data:

Data Recap:

Price and Indicators Snapshot

• Closing Prices (from July 9 to July 22):
• Jul 09: 140.68
• Jul 10: 142.07
• Jul 11: 142.76
• Jul 12: 144.77
• Jul 15: 143.07
• Jul 16: 142.61
• Jul 17: 139.26
• Jul 18: 138.03
• Jul 19: 138.56

• Jul 22: 140.4

• Indicators on Key Dates:

• Jul 15 SMA 20: 142.04, SMA 50: 130.13, SMA 100: 124.77, EMA 12: 142.33, EMA 26: 138.56, Bollinger Bands (Low: 137.75, Medium: 142.04, High: 146.33), OBV: 917,176,843
• Jul 22 SMA 20: 141.57, SMA 50: 132.42, SMA 100: 126.22, EMA 12: 140.81, EMA 26: 138.92, Bollinger Bands (Low: 137.05, Medium: 141.57, High: 146.09), OBV: 906,495,057

Technical Indicators Analysis:

1. Simple Moving Averages (SMA):

2. SMA 20 (Latest: 141.57), SMA 50 (Latest: 132.42), SMA 100 (Latest: 126.22):

   • The SMA values show a generally upward trend over the past three periods.
   • SMA 20 is higher than the current close price, suggesting a minor correction phase.
   • SMA 50 and SMA 100 are significantly lower, indicating that in the more extensive periods, the stock has been in an uptrend.

3. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):

4. EMA 12 (Latest: 140.81), EMA 26 (Latest: 138.92):

   • The current price is very close to EMA 12, indicating that the stock is holding near its short-term average.
   • The difference between EMA 12 and EMA 26 shows a short-term bullish trend albeit weakening.

5. Bollinger Bands:

6. Bands (Low: 137.05, Medium: 141.57, High: 146.09):

   • The close price of 140.4 on Jul 22 is near the medium band; however, on the 18th & 19th, it touched the lower band, indicating some support around this level.

7. On Balance Volume (OBV):

8. OBV decreased from 917M to 906M:

   • Lower OBV suggests bearish sentiment and potential selling. A decreasing OBV indicates downward pressure on the price.

9. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

10. MACD Line: 1.88, Signal Line: 3.05, Histogram: -1.17:
    • The MACD histogram going into the negative and MACD line below the Signal line suggests bearish momentum might continue.

Interpretation and Implication on Price Movement:

• Trend: The stock has shown some bearish activity lately as indicated by the MACD crossover and a decreasing OBV.
• Support and Resistance: With prices moving closer to the lower Bollinger Band recently, there's a significant support zone around 137. However, the continued pressure indicates potential retests of those support levels.
• Momentum: EMA cross, short-term SMA sits above the price, indicating relatively steady resistance. Negative MACD histogram growth shows continued bearish momentum in the short term.

Given this information, it is highly likely the stock will experience downward pressure in the near term.

Conclusion:

** (Bearish) Confidence Score: 85%