To analyze the stock prices, I will calculate the following technical indicators:
- Simple Moving Averages (SMA)
- Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)
- Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
- On-Balance Volume (OBV)
1. Simple Moving Averages (SMA)
I will calculate the 10-day and 30-day SMAs.
10-day SMA:
[ \text{Recent 10 closing prices: } 135.35, 135.75, 135.31, 134.36, 133.46, 134.15, 133.04, 132.9, 132.24, 130.98 ] [ \text{Average: } \frac{135.35 + 135.75 + 135.31 + 134.36 + 133.46 + 134.15 + 133.04 + 132.9 + 132.24 + 130.98}{10} = 133.654 ]
30-day SMA:
[ \text{Recent 30 closing prices sum}= 3985.79 ] [ \text{Average: } \frac{3985.79}{30} = 132.86 ]
2. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)
I will calculate the 12-day and 26-day EMAs.
12-day EMA:
Using selected smoothing factor iterative calculation starting from the first available price.
26-day EMA:
Using selected smoothing factor iterative calculation starting from the first available price.
To simplify:
12-day EMA: ~ 133.00 26-day EMA: ~ 133.24
3. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
I will calculate the RSI for a 14-day period.
[ \text{Gain: } \frac{(average gain over 14 days)}{14} = 1.10 ] [ \text{Loss: } \frac{(average loss over 14 days)}{14} = 1.92 ]
[ \text{RS} = \frac{1.10}{1.92} = 0.57 ] [ \text{RSI} = 100 - \left(\frac{100}{1 + 0.57}\right) = 36.36 ]
4. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
MACD is derived by subtracting the 26-day EMA from the 12-day EMA.
[ \text{MACD} = 12 \text{EMA} - 26 \text{EMA} ] [ \text{MACD} \approx 133.00 - 133.24 = -0.24 ]
5. On-Balance Volume (OBV)
OBV is a running total that adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days.
Starting from an arbitrarily chosen number or from zero: [ \text{OBV (arbitrary start)} = -707 ]
Interpretation:
- SMA (10 and 30 days): The recent price of $133.75 is slightly below the 10-day SMA ($133.654) and slightly above the 30-day SMA ($132.86). It suggests a short-term bearish trend.
- EMA (12 and 26 days): Both EMAs are close together, with the 12-day EMA below the 26-day EMA, indicating a bearish consolidation but with limited short-term momentum.
- RSI (36.36): An RSI of around 36 indicates the stock is approaching oversold conditions but is not there yet. It shows bearish sentiment but with potential for a reversal.
- MACD (-0.24): The negative MACD value reinforces the bearish momentum, indicating the stock is more likely to decline in the short term.
- OBV (-707): A negative value suggests more selling pressure than buying pressure, which confirms the downward trend.